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ECODATE

Volume 34, Issue 4 2020

ECODATE

Volume 34, Issue 4 2020

THE ECONOMICS OF THE 2020-21 FEDERAL BUDGET

Dr Anthony Stokes

Introduction

The Federal Budget is one of the Australian government’s macroeconomic policies to manage the economy. The budget is the main instrument
of the Government’s Fiscal Policy strategy. It is an announcement of the planned levels of government expenditure (G) as expenses and government receipts (T) as revenue for the financial year. The Budget Papers set out the Fiscal Policy through the use of changes in the level and direction of government spending (G) and revenue (T) to influence:

  • income distribution
  • resource allocation
  • the level of economic activity.
 

There are three possible budget outcomes:

  • a deficit budget, G > T
  • a surplus budget, T > G
  • a balanced budget, G = T.
 
In recent years the government has run budget deficits due to the need to stimulate the economy as a result of the Global Financial Crisis and sovereign debt issues in Europe slowing demand. The subsequent loss of government revenue due to low demand and higher welfare payments have added to the deficit spending, reduced tax revenue and increased the levels of government borrowing. Figure 1 shows the trends in the budget outcomes over the last 40 years. During periods of recession (1982-83, 1993-94) and slow economic growth (2000-01, 2007-08), budget deficits increased to deal with the problem of insufficient demand and increasing levels of unemployment.
 
In the periods following the economic slowdowns, tightening of Fiscal Policy and increased economic growth rates have led to the budget returning to a surplus. At the end of 2019, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told the Parliament that the government would prevail in its quest to deliver a long-promised budget surplus of $5 billion in the 2019-20 financial year. Due to the impact of COVID-19, that turned into a massive budget deficit of $85.3 billion, with larger deficits to come.

Figure 1: Australian Government Budget Balance as a % of GDP

As can be seen from Figure 1, the 2020-21 Budget is projected to turn the budget into the largest deficit in more than 50 years in the next financial year and will worsen in subsequent years.

The impact of budget deficits since 2007-08 has led to an increase in the Australian Government’s Net Debt (Figure 2). By 2006-07 the Australian government had no debt. The subsequent budget deficits increased the Australian Government’s Net Debt to 19.2% of GDP in 2018-19. However, as a result of the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Australia’s net debt is expected to rise to $703.2 billion in 2020-21, equivalent to 36.1% of real GDP. In comparison, government debt represented only 3.7% of GDP during the height of the global financial crisis. The government forecasts that net debt will peak at $966 billion, the equivalent of 44% of the national economy, in 2023-24. This is still much lower than most other industrial nations (Figure 3).

Figure 2: Public Sector Net Debt as a % of GDP

Figure 3: Selected OECD Nations Public Sector Net Debt as a % of GDP, 2019 and 2021 (Est.)

Fiscal Strategy

The previous section examined the overall fiscal strategy in recent decades. This section will consider the fiscal strategy associated with the current budget. The fiscal strategy relates to what the government is trying to achieve in the 2020-21 Budget and its subsequent budgets. It is important to note that the Federal Budget is merely a plan of what the government expects to achieve. The 2019-20 budget, as demonstrated, went from a surplus to a large deficit due to COVID-19 is a testament of risks in achiving any budgetary target.

There are several key factors to consider regarding the 2020-21 Budget. First, instead of having the budget announcement in May, the government had a mid-year economic update in July, with the main budget for 2020- 21 announced in October 2020.

The economic update in July 2020 set out the fundamental changes that the government would put in place in future budgets. As shown in Figure 4, the impact of Covid-19 on the economy and the budget bottom line was enormous. From expected surpluses in December 2019 to record-breaking deficits by July 2020. This came about as companies and individuals earn less money and pay less tax in a slowing economy. In 2019-20, the government is missing out on $33 billion it was expecting in tax revenue, and in 2020-21, it will take in $63.9 billion less than it was initially expecting.

Figure 4: The Impact of Covid-19 on the Budget Outcome

Following a global pandemic and an unprecedented economic downturn, the budget deficit is now expected to surge to $213.7 billion in 2020-21, increased from $85.3 billion in 2019-20. This deficit is equivalent to 11.0% of real GDP, an outcome not seen since the end of World War 2.

At a time when Australia is in recession and unemployment is forecast to reach 8%, the government has added stimulus to the economy in the 2020-21 budget by creating a deficit of $213.7 billion. The government has achieved this large deficit by increasing the level of government expenditure and reducing the level of income tax. As can be seen in Table 1, the government is aiming to add further stimulus to the economy by increasing the underlying budget deficit from an estimated $85.3 billion (4.3% of GDP) in 2019- 20 to a $213.7 billion deficit (11.0% of GDP) in 2020-21. This is proposed to be achieved through an increase in government expenditure from 27.7% of GDP in 2019- 20 to 34.8% of GDP in 2020-21. At the same time, government revenue is expected to increase slightly as a result of increased tax revenue from 23.7% of GDP in 2019-20 to 23.8% of GDP in 2020-21, as the economy starts to recover.

An alternative budget measurement is known as the Fiscal Balance. This is the accrual accounting measurement of the Cash Balance. The Fiscal Strategy is to worsen the overall Fiscal Balance from a deficit of $96.3 billion in 2019-20 to a larger deficit of $197.9 billion in 2020-21. This will achieve a Fiscal Deficit of 10.6% of GDP in 2020-21.

Table 1: Australian Government Budget Aggregate 2019-20 to 2023- 24. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers, Fiscal Strategy and Outlook.

A number of assumptions are underlying the Budget projections for the future years. The key one is that no one can be sure if and when a vaccine will be developed and become available in Australia and across the world. According to the Government, real GDP is expected to decline by 1.5% this year, before rebounding by 4.75% in 2021-22. This projected growth rate would be the highest experienced in the last century. The government expects population growth to rise by a marginal 0.2% in 2020-21 and 0.4% in 2021-22, the slowest growth in over a century. Net overseas migration is expected to be negative for the first time since 1946. If these assumptions are wrong, so will the budget outcome. It should be noted that economic conditions can change and this can impact on the budget outcome both in a positive and negative way over time. The exact outcome for the 2020-21 Budget will not be determined until late 2021.

Structural Budget Balance Estimates

Another important consideration of the government’s fiscal strategy is the structural budget balance. Structural budget balance estimates attempt to remove temporary movements in receipts and payments. The cause of these shifts includes deviations in real GDP, commodity prices, asset prices and the rate of unemployment from their long-run trends, as well as discretionary fiscal measures. Considered in conjunction with other measures, estimates of the structural budget balance can provide broad insights into the sustainability of fiscal settings.

The latest estimates now suggest an ongoing structural budget deficit of around 1½ per cent of GDP by 2030- 31 (Figure 5). This reflects the higher payments to GDP ratio as well as lower projected tax receipts as a share of GDP over the medium term. In the near term, the large temporary economic support measures and cyclical factors (including the automatic stabilisers) make significant contributions to the deterioration in the underlying cash balance.

Compared with 2019-20 MYEFO the projected structural budget balance in 2029-30 has deteriorated by 3½ per cent of GDP. Around 2½ percentage points of this structural deterioration are due to higher payments as a share of GDP. The remaining one percentage point reflects lower tax and other receipts as a share of GDP.

Figure 5: Structural budget balance estimates. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers, Fiscal Strategy and Outlook.

Budget Measures

At the time of writing this article, the 2020-21 Budget has not been passed through Federal Parliament. This article will discuss what was proposed in the Budget Papers and the effect that those proposals are likely to have on income inequality and resource allocation. It should be noted that a number of the policy changes will not take effect till 2023 or later. The government anticipates that the economy will be on a stable growth path by then.

Plans for Government Revenue 2020-21 Budget

Total revenue for 2020-21 is expected to be $463.8 billion, a decrease of $5.6 billion on revenue in 2019-20. Despite significant cuts to income tax in the budget, there is expected to be some improvement in government revenue that should result from increased income tax revenue, as a result of expected employment growth in 2021. Figure 6 shows the primary sources of government revenue in the 2020-21 Budget. The following sections will discuss the main changes that have been proposed in regards to taxation revenue in the 2020-21 Budget.

Figure 6: Sources of Revenue 2020-21 Budget. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers, Budget Overview

Figure 6: Sources of Revenue 2020-21 Budget. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers, Budget Overview

1. Changes to Taxation Policies

a) Changes to Income Tax?

The government is lowering taxes by around $9 billion in 2020–21 and an additional $32 billion in 2021–22. There will be tax relief for over 11 million individuals. Low- and middle-income earners will receive tax relief of up to $2,745 for singles or up to $5,490 for dual-income families in 2020–21 compared with 2017–18 settings. These changes involve three steps:

First, the low-income tax offset will provide up to an additional $255 in tax relief as it increases from $445 to $700.

Second, the top threshold of the 19 per cent bracket will increase from $37,000 to $45,000. This will provide up to $1,080 in tax relief.

Third, the top threshold of the 32.5 per cent bracket will increase from $90,000 to $120,000. This prevents many individuals from facing higher marginal tax rates in the future and provides tax relief of up to $1,350. Taxpayers will receive more money in their regular pay packets throughout the year and will receive the full benefit of these changes for the 2020–21 income year upon assessment at the end of the Fiscal Year. The threshold on which no income tax is paid remains the same, at $18,200. The success of this policy in increasing economic growth and reducing unemployment is based on people spending tax savings and not saving them. If the tax cuts are saved, there will be a little stimulus to the economy. Figure 7 provides a summary of the impact and levels of tax changes.

Figure 7: Tax relief targeted to low- and middle-income earners in 2020–21 compared with 2017–18. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers

There is a need for personal income tax reform. As individual incomes rise, most people will be paying more income tax. As people’s incomes rise, they pay a greater proportion of any income gains in tax, and their tax payments increase over time. This is known as ‘Bracket Creep’ or ‘Fiscal Drag’. Income tax rates should be regularly adjusted to reflect rises in money wages to prevent an increased tax burden especially on lower and middle-income earners.

The government has legislated the abolition of the 37 per cent tax bracket, and the reduction of the 32.5 per cent marginal tax rate to 30 per cent, from 2024–25. This will mean around 95 per cent of taxpayers will face a marginal tax rate of 30 per cent or less in 2024–25.

b) Business Tax Incentives

The government is providing a temporary tax incentive to support new investment and deliver significant cash flow benefits to businesses. It will be available to around 3.5 million businesses (over 99% of companies) that employ about 11.5 million workers. The incentive will apply to approximately $200 billion worth of investment, including 80% of investment in depreciable assets by non-mining businesses. Businesses with turnover up to $5 billion will be able to deduct the full cost of eligible depreciable assets of any value in the year they are first used or installed ready for use.

This measure supports businesses that invest as it significantly reduces the after-tax cost of eligible assets, providing a cash flow benefit. The measure also creates a strong incentive for businesses to bring forward investment before it expires. This is aimed at increasing investment and growth in the economy.

c) Expanding Access to a Range of Small Business Tax Concessions

The government is expanding access to a range of small business tax concessions for small to medium businesses by lifting the aggregated annual turnover threshold from $10 million to $50 million, providing tax relief and reducing red tape for businesses. These include Fringe Benefit Tax exemptions in a number of areas and immediate deductions for eligible start-up businesses.

d) Temporary Loss Carry-back

The government will also allow companies with turnover up to $5 billion to offset tax losses against previous profits on which tax has been paid to generate a refund. Loss carry-back will be available to around 1 million companies that employ up to 8.8 million workers. Losses incurred in 2019–20, 2020–21 and/or 2021–22 can be carried back against profits made in or after 2018–19. Eligible companies may elect to receive a tax refund when they lodge their 2020–21 and 2021–22 tax returns. This measure will help companies that were profitable and tax-paying but now find themselves in a loss position due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Plans for Government Expenditure 2020-21 Budget

Total expenses for 2020-21 are expected to be $677.4 billion, an increase of 23.3% on expenses in 2019-20. Figure 8 shows the main areas of government spending in the 2020-21 Budget. The following sections will discuss the main changes that have occurred in regards to government expenditure in the budget.

Figure 8: Areas of Government Expenditure 2020-21 Budget. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers, Budget Overview

The 2020-21 Federal Budget is about increasing spending. There have been no significant cuts to spending in the budget. Foreign aid funding will be cut by $140 million over four years on the back of past deep cuts.

Increases in Government Expenditure

Social security and health have grown as key items of government expenditure. Social Security has been the largest Federal Government expenditure for several years. Social security expenditure is expected to increase by 16% in 2020-21, reaching 11.7% of GDP. Due to the pandemic, health spending will also peak at 4.8% of GDP in 2020-21, while it is projected to stabilise at 4.5% of GDP in the coming years.

In this budget, the government is providing an additional $98 billion in response and recovery support, including $25 billion under the COVID19 Response Package and $74 billion under the JobMaker Plan. This brings the government’s overall response and recovery support since the onset of the pandemic to $507 billion, of which $257 billion reflects direct economic support.

The main items that have been changed by deliberate government policy measures are:

a) $10 Billion Extra for Infrastructure

The government is increasing spending on its infrastructure plan from $100 billion to $110 billion over the next ten years with a COVID19 infrastructure package that will provide significant nearterm investments in major road and rail projects, road safety and community infrastructure. In particular, the government will provide an additional $10.0 billion in funding towards projects over the next four years bringing total commitments for new and accelerated projects since the onset of the COVID19 pandemic to $14.0 billion across the forward estimates. Moreover, over the next two years, the government will provide significant stimulus through the new $2 billion Road Safety Program, and an additional $1 billion of funding for the recently established Local Roads and Community Infrastructure Program taking the size of the program to $1.5 billion.

The government is also making additional funding commitments for new transport (i.e. road and rail) projects in each of the states and territories.  The government will contribute $7.5 billion towards new investment in national transport infrastructure.

b) The JobMaker Hiring Credit

The JobMaker Hiring Credit will help to accelerate growth in employment by giving businesses incentives to take on additional employees that are aged 16 to 35 years old. This will help young people access job opportunities and rebuild their connection to the labour force as the economy recovers from the COVID19 pandemic. A new $1 billion JobTrainer fund will give hundreds of thousands of Australians access to new skills by retraining and upskilling them into ‘indemand’ sectors. The government will also spend $252 million to support the delivery of 50,000 higher education short courses in areas such as teaching, health, science, information technology and agriculture.

c) Increased Spending for Social Welfare

The government will provide eligible social welfare recipients, including pensioners, two separate $250 economic support payments, which are expected to increase payments by $2.5 billion in 2020-21 ($2.6 billion over the three years to 2022-23).

The budget also provides for funding to further support older Australians accessing aged care by providing additional home care packages and continuing to improve transparency and regulatory standards, which are expected to increase payments by $705.0 million in 2020-21 ($2.0 billion over the four years to 2023-24).

d) Covid-19 Support Packages

The Job Seeker Income Support program, which is expected to increase by $12.3 billion in 2020-21 ($19.7 billion over the four years to 2023-24), largely reflecting an increase in the forecast recipient numbers due to the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and employment levels.

In addition, the Economic Response to the Coronavirus program, which is expected to increase by $3.3 billion in 2020- 21 ($4.1 billion over the four years to 2023-24), reflecting an increase in the forecast number of eligible businesses receiving support under the Cash Flow Boost for Employers.

e) Universities

The government is providing $1 billion in extra research funding for universities in 2020-21 in addition to providing $300 million for 12,000 new undergraduate places in 2021. Nonetheless, the government has increased the fees in several courses, especially in the area of humanities.

Economic effects and economic outlook

The government’s fiscal stance refers to whether it is trying to increase growth (expansionary policy) or slow the rate of growth in the economy (contractionary policy). Budgets have a number of effects on the economy. Initially, changes in government spending will affect the level of aggregate expenditure and aggregate demand and thus, income in the economy. The multiplier effect will magnify this change in the level of income. If there is an increase in income, this will generate economic growth and lead to higher levels of employment, while reductions in income will do the opposite. A reduction in taxation will have a similar effect to increasing government spending. It will increase income in the economy. An increase in the tax rate will reduce income, leading to a reduction in economic activity and higher unemployment.

The overall economic impact of the 2020-21 Budget relates to an increase in the deficit by a record $128.4 billion and a projected deficit of $213.7 billion. This is a change from a budget outcome of 4.3% of GDP in 2019- 20 to 11.0% of GDP in 2020-21. In general, economic theory would suggest that this would act to generate a significant expansion in the economy and increase economic growth and employment. The 2020-21 Budget estimates that since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the government’s economic support is expected to result in economic activity being 4½% higher by 2021-22 and the peak of the unemployment rate is lower by around five percentage points than what otherwise would have occurred. Without the government’s economic support, the unemployment rate would have risen, and remained, above 12% throughout 2020-21 and 2021-22.

We should note that different budgetary measures have other impacts on the economy. The effect of the income tax cuts is strongly influenced by the proportion that is spent. If people save income tax cuts, then the impact on the economy is minimal. However, Treasury has estimated that the spending on infrastructure has a multiplier of 4, suggesting that every billion dollars spent on infrastructure will grow the economy by four billion dollars, although this will be over a lengthy period of time (25 years). So the overall impact of the budget would be very expansionary, allowing for the condition of the domestic and global economy due to Covid-19. This is supported by the Treasury’s economic estimates in Table 2. The table shows that economic growth, prices and wage growth are all expected to increase over the next two years, and the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.5% in 2021-22. Each of these outcomes would tend to increase government revenue by 2021-22 due to their impacts on the cyclical component of the budget deficit, assuming the estimates are correct.

Table 2: Major Economic Parameters and Forecasts. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers, Budget Overview

Table 2: Major Economic Parameters and Forecasts. Source: Australian Government 2020-21 Budget Papers, Budget Overview

In regards to the impact of the 2020-21 Budget on income inequality, the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), at the University of Canberra, undertook economic modelling to measure the impact of the budget on income inequality. The NATSEM (2020) modelling indicates that broadly speaking the more you earn, the better off you will be from the Federal Budget 2020-21. This is because changes to the tax and welfare system most benefit those paying tax—those who don’t earn enough income to pay tax benefit the least.

Figure 9 (4) shows the 2020 Budget impact on the disposable income of single households. NATSEM (2020) modelling shows that those who earn a high income will gain more from this year’s budget as they benefit from the tax cut that has been brought forward a year from 1 July 2022. This group’s disposable income will increase by $2,430 in 2020 (and will continue in 2021). This extra income is more than four times the additional income received by singles on a minimum wage and more than double of those on the average wage in 2020.

Meanwhile, the extra disposable income due to the tax cut and the low-income tax offset (LITO) for the minimum wage group will be $101 in 2021, slightly higher than $73 extra for the average wage group. Aged pensioners who are single can expect an extra $500 due to the additional COVID-19 supplements ($250×2). This is significantly lower in real terms to singles on higher incomes.

Figure 9 (5) shows that in terms of the percentage change in incomes (rather than absolute dollars), low to middle-income earners gain the most, with low-income earners benefiting from LITO; and middle-income earners benefiting from the tax cuts. Those with a pre-tax household income of $40,000 per annum will be affected by the two budget measures. Singles who earn $45,000 per year gain the most percentage-wise with an extra of 2.4% due to the income tax cut. So some singles on lower incomes do better in relative terms.

Figure 9: The Impact of the 2020-21 Budget on Single Incomes. Source: NATSEM. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (2020)

Figure 9: The Impact of the 2020-21 Budget on Single Incomes. Source: NATSEM. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (2020)

The NATSEM (2020) study shows that when both partners are a couple without children and receive a high wage, they gain the most from this year’s budget as the income tax cut will benefit them both. These high-income families will receive an extra $4,860 in 2020 after the changes in the tax system from the 2020 Budget.

A couple who both receive the average wage can expect an extra $2,160 in 2020 with the tax cut, whereas a couple who are both on the minimum wage can expect an additional $1,021 in their disposable incomes. This is because they are affected by two measures; the tax cut and the increase in the LITO. The changes in LITO affect couples who earn between $50,000 and $80,000 per year (see Figure 10). Couples, where both partners are retirees or persons with a disability, will receive an extra $500 – $1,000 due to the additional COVID-19 supplement provided to the recipients of the Age Pension and Disability Support Pension (DSP).

When considering couples with children, Table 3 shows that higher-income families benefit the most due to the income tax cut, receiving an extra $4,860 per income unit this financial year. If both parents work fulltime on minimum wage, the household can expect an additional $1,521 in their disposable incomes.

Couples with children earning up to $20,000 per year only receive the $500 extra COVID-19 supplement as this group receive Family Tax Benefit with no primary income support benefit. Couples with children who earn jointly between $30,000-$100,000 will also receive the changes in LITO and the tax cuts. At a household income level higher than $100,000, couples with children only receive the tax cut. While the high-income earners gain the most in money terms, their benefit reduces as a proportion of their income as income increases.

Table 3: Changes in annual disposable income for couple families with children as a result of the tax changes in the 2020 Budget. Source: NATSEM. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (2020)

Table 3: Changes in annual disposable income for couple families with children as a result of the tax changes in the 2020 Budget. Source: NATSEM. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (2020)

Further, the NATSEM (2020) model shows that despite the growth in unemployment, the Gini coefficient (a measure of inequality) dropped by nearly 0.03 points from 0.330 in February to 0.302 in May (Table 4). The reduction is due to the additional wage subsidies, and welfare support offered as part of the government’s policy response, offsetting the increase in income inequality from the changes in incomes. Families with children in lower-income households are more likely to have experienced the most gain in disposable income (after deduction of the childcare cost) in the immediate months after the initial outbreak mainly due to the jobseeker and JobKeeper payments. This analysis highlights the importance of these payments during the crisis.

Table 4: Changes in Income Inequality. Source: NATSEM. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (2020)

Table 4: Changes in Income Inequality. Source: NATSEM. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (2020)

The Corona Virus pandemic across the globe and in Australia will have a significant impact on the actual budget outcome in 2020-21. The implementation of a successful vaccine would likely improve the overall state of the economy and the budget outcomes. However, falling commodity prices and a rising Australian dollar may worsen the size of the budget deficit. On the other hand, Treasury forecasts are projecting more robust economic growth and wage growth and a lower unemployment rate. Such an outcome would most likely improve the budget outcome.

Student activities

1. What are the three main goals of fiscal policy?

2. Why has the government run budget deficits in a long period of sustained economic growth?

3. With reference to Figure 4, explain how the recession sparked by the coronavirus has affected government revenues and expenses and therefore turned an expected surplus into a massive deficit.

4. Discuss the growth in the Australian government’s net debt since the Global Financial Crisis and especially since the advent of the pandemic/recession. In your answer refer to the effect of changes in interest rates.

5. What is a structural budget balance and why is it an important consideration in the government’s fiscal strategy?

6. What are the automatic stabilisers and how are they currently affecting the budget’s underlying cash balance?

7. Given that the income tax cuts were proposed at a time when the budget was expected to be moving into a sustained surplus for many years, discuss whether the cuts are the best way to stimulate economic activity given that the budget is now likely to be in a sustained deficit for many years?

8. Outline the budget’s range of temporary business tax incentives/concessions.

9. Outline the following new spending measures:

  • infrastructure spending
  • JobMaker
  • social welfare
  • Covid support packages
  • universities.
 

10. Assess in detail the budget’s likely effect on Australia’s economic indicators. In your answer refer to Table 2 and to the difference between the official unemployment rate from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the federal Treasury’s effective unemployment rate.

11. What is the multiplier effect and explain how it is likely to apply to government spending and taxation measures?

12. Assess the likely impact of the tax cuts on the distribution of income in Australia. In your answer refer to Figure 9 and Tables 3 and 4.

13. How has the Reserve Bank of Australia complemented the government’s fiscal strategy in the current recession?

14. ESSAY: Evaluate Australia’s macroeconomic management leading into and during the current economic recession. In your answer consider:

  • whether the pursuit of a surplus left Australia in a weaker position when the Covid crisis hit
  • whether interest rates should have been so low when the crisis hit
  • whether JobKeeper and JobSeeker were the best policies to support businesses and employees during the crisis
  • whether the measures in the budget will deliver sufficient additional support to achieve a sustained economic recovery in the near future, if we are not further affected by the pandemic.

Reference List

Australian Bureau of Statistics (various), Australian National Accounts, Cat.No. 5602.0. Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (various), Employee Earnings and Hours, Cat.No. 6306.0. Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (various), The Labour Force, Cat.No. 6203.0. Canberra.

Australian Government, Budget 2020-21, available at https://www.budget.gov.au/

Reserve Bank of Australia (various), Reserve Bank Bulletin, Canberra.

International Monetary Fund (2020), World Economic Outlook, available at http://www.imf.org/

NATSEM. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (2020), University of Canberra

Stokes, A. and S. Wright (2020), HSC Economics Digital Text, Greenacre Educational Publications, Sydney.

Websites

Australian Bureau of Statistics. http://www.abs.gov.au

Federal Budget. https://www.budget.gov.au/

Greenacre Educational Publications. http://greenacreeducational-publications.com.au/

Reserve Bank of Australia. http://www.rba.gov.au/

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